Thursday, January 17, 2008

Political Blogging - Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

I have not shied from my absolute resolve for Illinois Senator Barack Obama's campaign for democratic presidential nominee.

So assuming I had money, I would put it where my mouth was: in Intrade.

Right now (January 17, 2008 5:00pm cst) the Intrade price for Obama winning the democratic nomination is 40.5 (or $4.05 for each share). I'd put a $1,000 on Obama which buys about 247 shares of Obama stock.

I'd do this because he's going to rebound with two wins in Nevada and South Carolina. And his Intrade price will rebound.

So why wins in Nevada and South Carolina for Obama?
1) A federal judge today ruled against the suit that attempted to close the Stripe's nine at-large caucus sites. Adam Tanner reported the story for Reuters. This is a boon for Obama. Further, the attempt itself created intense ire among voters who saw it as an attempt by an embittered Clinton camp at disenfranchising low-income and service sector workers, and moreover probably solidified the culinary workers around Obama.

2) African American voters are beginning to break overwhelming for Obama. In Michigan nearly 70% of all black voted 'uncommitted' (essential a vote for Edwards or Obama). See the exit polls from CNN's Election Center 2008. If this number is even remotely close to what happens in South Carolina Obama will win by double-digits (yeah, yeah, I know you've heard this before).

3) The head to heads don't lie: Obama is the most electable candidate for the general election. Real Clear Politics has the numbers. Hillary Clinton might be 'change' for some liberals, but for most conservatives her 'negatives' are here to stay and they are at times higher than 50%. In the general head-to-head polling Obama does 2% better (than Clinton) aginst McCain, 7% better against Giuliani, 6.5% better against Mike Huckabee, 10% better against Romney, and 4.5% better against Thompson.

4) Finally, Obama is getting the endorsements: Claire McCaskill (IA), Patrick Leahy (VT) and Ben Nelson (NE). These are for the most part representatives from conservative leaning states, and reinforces the support that moderates have for Barack Obama.

The morning after the South Carolina race I'm going to 'sell' the stock at 8am cst.
I predict that his number will be 60%. This would yield about $481 in profit.

Who else wants to speculate? Predictions anyone?

Update: (January 19, 2008)
Hillary Clinton won Nevada, but it would be a bad time to sell. Barack Obama is at 32.2 right now (meaning I'm down $205). However, the Nevada race wasn't bad for Obama. If anything it reinforced two (well, three) things.
1) Black voters are now breaking for Obama; watch out for South Carolina.
2) Latino voters are still not ready to vote for a black candidate.
3) Clinton's cronyism is still going strong; late yesterday and earlier today she and Bill were ratcheting down expectations by ancedotally suggesting that there was union voter supression.

South Carolina will go to Obama. February 5th looks unnervingly wide open.

With Barack Obama winning South Carolina the Intrade stock jumped though not enough to make up the loss. Cashing in at the current rate of 38.0 the lost per share would have been $0.25 and with 247 shares totals a loss of $61.75.

Nevertheless, 5th is still wide open and watch to see how momentum plays.

1 comment:

Hellernot said...

Two things: To Whom does Edwards throw his support? This could be big and swing either of the top two to a big lead.
And second----If your man wins both primaries and Monica Lewinsky's ex-boyfriends wife wins big on Super Tuesday where does that leave the D's?
If you really want to bet may I advise you may be better off with the Patriots or the Packers. I'm just saying.