Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Political Blogging - New Hampshire

Already Barack Obama has opened a lead in New Hampshire. A little after midnight, Dixville Notch residents voted, which can be about read at CNN. The tally: Obama 7, Edwards 2, Richardson 1, Clinton 0.

Obama has not only sustained the momentum by winning Iowa's caucus five days ago, but has continued to increase the fervor. Since Iowa Obama overtook the Club 100 dinner where it became more rock concert than fundraiser, was endorsed by Bill Bradley, and was pitch-perfect during the Saturday nationally-televised debate. There is no Obama bandwagon, its more like a train.

The corresponding surge in the polls suggests only one outcome for Tuesday night; another victory speech by Obama. Intrade has Obama winning New Hampshire with 92% certainty. Money in the bank.

The question now is not if he'll win, but by how much. Let me wager. Real Clear Politics shows Obama ahead of Clinton by an average of almost 8 points. Since two days after Iowa, Obama has lead in every poll. Let me suggest that tomorrow Obama runs away with 40% of the vote. Clinton will come in second with 28%, Edward with 27% and 5% for Richardson. The independents are more interested in the Democratic race and will vie for Obama, (and even Edwards). Richardson's vote will dissipate.

Also:
The new (and very conservative) Op-ed writer for the New York Times, William Kristol, wrote against Obama, which is worth a laugh.

The always charming, but still neurotic and unbalanced fruitbakset of man, Christopher Hitchens, writing for the Slate, also wrote an anthema for Obama. He wanted to remind us that Obama was black, and discouragingly admonish us for all this white-guily driven non-sense. We can now add him to the growing list of pundits who still don't get what's going on.

Update: It doesn't seem to be only the right that doesn't get why Obama is pulling ahead. Gloria Steinem wrote an Op-ed for the New York Times arguing this election is just another example of sex being a bigger barrier than race in this country (think voting rights). She writes, "But what worries me is that he is seen as unifying by his race while she is seen as divisive by her sex." But Obama's race isn't what is unifying. Clinton's sex isn't what makes her divisive. What makes Obama a unifying figure is becuase he talks about partisan reconciliation and the end of primary-color politics (red, blue and swing-state-yellow). Clinton is divisive because she tows the party agenda, in her speech after Iowa all she could talk about was getting a Democrat into the White House.

So to recap: New Hampshire (predictions):
Obama - 40%
Clinton - 28%
Edwards - 27%
Richardson - 5%

2 comments:

Mark Roberts said...

Dewey defeats Truman!

All aboard the Obama train...er...

Nice links to the articles, I enjoy expanding my political education of you Democrats.

The Catholic Atheist said...

Mark,

Thanks for reading.
Currently the train is at a station stop... tickets may still be purchased. The train will be arriving at the White House in January 2009.