Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Political Blogging - Fallout

As if waking after a blizzard to the new fallen snow this morning Americans are awaking to a new political landscape.

Of course this is a surprise. And just like snowfall, it is either a joy or for others a fallout. Not to overburden the analogy, but last nights outcome was if every meteorologist in the country had forecast sunny-skies and highs in low 50's only to find 3' feet of snow on the ground.

So what happened? Why did a 98% Intrade certainty begin to fire-sale around 10p.m. and close at 0% in remaining hours of the night. How did the Real Clear Politics tracking polls show Obama ahead by 8pts (-/+ 1% sampling error) and then come out down 3pts?

A few possibilities, and they fall into two camps: emotive and empirical.

Jonathan Alter at Newsweek has an article that traces the possible emotive reasons why Hillary won.

And though something stirred voters yesterday there is also a need to look at the numbers. Larry Ganger over at ABC News questions why the polls were wrong. The Republican polls were on target, but the Democratic race is unconventional. Ganger links two very interesting articles, one concerning name placement on ballots and the other on bi-racial contests. Both of the reasons don’t give a clear sense as to what happened last night.

Some hopeful news if the unexpected snowfall didn't bring you joy. Los Angeles Times
staff writer Peter Wallsten mentioned two reasons not to rule out Obama. One, he writes, "No longer was Clinton viewed as the most likely candidate to beat a Republican. In the [exit] poll, 44% percent said Obama was more likely to win the November election, compared to 35% who said that of Clinton." Second, last night a large Nevada union endorsed Obama, and there is speculation the culinary union will endorse Obama later today.

So where do we go from here?

Nevada and South Carolina: (our nation turns its lonely eyes toward you). Nevada will be a tough win for Obama, and South Carolina would be a very tough win for Clinton. Super Tuesday now becomes a fiasco for both the Republican and Democratic contenders. Watch to see if any of the candidates turn negative (The New York Times' Editorial Board is worried of this).

Update:
Steven Greenhouse just reported from the New York Times's The Caucus page that Obama will receive the Unite Here union endorsement. The union represents around 60,000 culinary casion workers in the much coveted state of Nevada.

1 comment:

Hellernot said...

Voters from all over the state were reporting bus loads of folks from out of state bearing Hillory stickers were showing up and voting. Others reported long lines of cars with out of state plates voting in places where the locals all said they have never seen them before.
The polls never took this into account. Some might call it cheating while others might say it was a grand idea. All I can say is--typical.