Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Political Blogging - Intrade Helps Quell Fears

The past couple weeks after the Republican National Convention have been filled with premonition and pandemonium. Governor Sarah Palin's meteoric rise to national stardom has left many liberals aghast at the possibility that while 'change' trumps experience, it apparently doesn't trump 'inexperience.'

Overnight the media began reporting that soccer and Wal-mart moms could finally relate to a politician, and found Palin to be "refreshing." This, I believe, highlights the two mutually exclusive myths of the United States. These two myths, which I have written about before, are espoused in individualism and egalitarianism. Palin has captured the nearly impossible middle-ground between the two. Perhaps, I will write more about Palin and the two myths later, but this post is merely to be a politically cathartic read. It is to remind us that voting totals do not elect Presidents; the Electoral College does (which Democrats so painfully learned about in 2000).

Recently, national polls have steadily moved toward a dead heat. Obama and McCain seemed poised toward yet another election that is 'too close to call.'

And yet, I don't think we need to worry. Check out intrade.com. The online predictions market has a new US 2008 presidential election tool. The current political map has Obama winning 273 to McCain's 265.

A slim margin to be sure, but the question is what state does McCain, can McCain, swing? RealClearPolitics currently names 11 swings states. Yet while all these states by RCP definition have polls that are within 4% difference, most these states are already considered “locked” by intrade.

For example: In Pennsylvania Obama garners 47.3% while McCain holds 45.7% support in the polls, with a difference of 1.6% in Obama's favor. Yet, on intrade Pennsylvania is being predicated as going for Obama with 68% certainty.

Also, for example, Florida is nearly a swing state. The average polling numbers to date are McCain 49.4%, Obama 44.4%. Yet intrade predicts McCain will carry the state with 70% certainty.

So what are the real swing states?
Anything that intrade has at 60% or lower.

The red states that intrade has at 60% or below are:
Nevada(5)
Virginia(13)
Ohio(20)

The blue state that intrade has at 60 or below are:
New Hampshire(4)
Colorado(9)

What does all this mean? There are more and bigger leaning-red swing states. Democrats: rest easy. (There will be canvassing to do soon).

5 comments:

Hellernot said...

The CSA are a red lock anything else is wishful thinking. It could all come down to Ohio--again. This footballess state will get the full on Sarah blitz and so far not a team in the state can handle that.

Jason Gill said...

Dear Friend (that means you),

First, you lost. Both sides put up a beautiful and terribly bloody war, and it is now the USA. Where the hell is you patriotism?

Second, Virginia ain't what it use to be. Washington D.C. suburbs and exurbs are changing the demographic. Virginia is becoming just another East Coast state; whence comes the democratic vote? Population density! (and VA has gotten a whole lot more crowded these last four years.)

Hellernot said...

Lost? So now you tell me. People round here don't talk like that.

Anyway--yes Virginia could be a problem with the influx of all those people living off the govt and ruining our countries hallowed ground. I've seen all this for myself and it made me sick. But in the end western Virginia is solid red where people have real jobs and nobody told them they "lost". Just ask them.

I'll be at the Veterans Administration all day tomorrow as part of the Agent Orange Registry. I'll let the patriotism thing slide because I know it was a joke. I'll tell you the results---think good thoughts.

Jason Gill said...

You know I only wish you the best. My thoughts will be with you.

(The South did lose, though).

Mark said...

It seems deadly close considering how bad and mismanaged the last 8 years were. Thanks for your thoughts, Jason. It's good to see you blogging again.